It's not that...

It's a more simple power calculation.

The moment the USA or even Israel "without American knowledge" (yeah right) attack Iran, Iran will shoot all its missile power, which is considerable, against every American base within its reach, which includes the Nato bases in Turkey and all the American bases in Iraq, Afghanistan and the countries in the southern Gulf coast. The polemic missile shield for Europe is a cute distraction, but Iran needs not reach London to put the West to its knees - probably most of the missiles launched would be destroyed in mid-flight; the remainder is enough to decimate American forces in the region and seriously destabilise every pro-American regime there is. Simultaneously, Iran will block the Hormuz Strait, disrupting the global oil supply, and then Americans will have to learn to live with expensive oil in the hardest way.

I have safely assumed that neither Obama nor McCain are dumb enough to do that. After all, not even Dubya was...

So, Iran will have nukes if it really is their desire to have them. Israel and the West are just doing what they have to in order to save face.

Otoh, for all his stridently retreatist rhetoric, I don't really expect Obama to retreat from Iraq as soon as he promised all along. He will lose the peace immediately if he does so, and one would expect his advisors would tell him. If he insists, well, then, get a Canadian passport asap... seriously...