Re: LOLWUT?

The Taliban have no real control of their country now. They have pockets of control. Big effin' deal.

That's all they need. They're an insurgency not a standing government.

We caused them mortal damage and they'll never be as strong as they were. More importantly, they'll think twice before aiding and abetting terrorist groups in the future. After all this is over, I reckon we'll see a kinder, gentler Taliban come into power legitimately at some point but nothing like what they were.

I think they will be more wary of giving safe haven to international terrorism, but not regional terrorism: Central Asia and South Asia will still be local enough for them (although, other forces in those other countries might still make terrorism less common or less deadly, of course). And I sure don't think they will be any softer in domestic policies. It took 9/11 to have them overthrown, not any domestic policy they pursued prior to it.

Whether or not they will be back to power will depend more on the other Afghan political groups. Sad to say they are making all the wrong moves - corrupted, cronyist, and oppressing any rise of a true civil society. (Ironically, the wider base and institutionalized organization of the Talibans makes them more of a civil society organization than that of most Afghan political groups still organized around clans or strongmen)

How much that would be a victory is very debatable. Even if the achievements, small as they would be, would sound of victory, the huge cost makes it very debatable whether it would be a victory at all. Couldn't the same achievements be obtained without even an invasion, through an extensive bombing campaign in 2001, for instance?

(Of course, that would not have raised the deficit to unsustainable levels, so it's not acceptable to neocons)