GirlChat #543426


CASC Believability Theorem

Posted by qtns2di4 on 2011-November-11 20:13:03 EST, Friday

  Views: 1    Likes: 0     

When one adult is accused of sexual contact with children ("children" as defined by local law: could be aged 3, 11 or 17):

The believability of the case is increased as we add from one child to two children, to few children.
(One child alleged has a comparatively large chance of being a false complaint for fame, money or revenge. This possibility shrinks as more children add up.)

The believability of the case, however, decreases as we add more and more children arriving to many children.
(Instances of CASC with few children can more easily remain hidden than with many. At the same time, the desirability of joining a false accusation for money or fame from someone not already holding a personal grudge increases with more cases behind to help back it up character-wise.)

For math geeks, I am postulating that the believability of CASC accusations follows some form of Chi-squared or Gamma distribution.





qtns2di4


This post is archived, preventing any new replies.

Responses